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Cao Yushu on the macro economy some hot issues on
( without the authors and three taste bookshops agreed ,the articles shall not be reproduced .Thank !) about macroscopical economy some hot issues ( on) Cao Yushu ( April 18, 2009) was very glad to have the opportunity to three taste bookshops and friends together to discuss what we all concern macroeconomic issues.
I watched them ,here is a galaxy of talents all the friends ,to this we discuss this problem very interested ,I also very happy .I can begin to follow me to some of the content of some information ,and is willing to jointly with everybody communication and discussion ,exchange of views .
I have three problems ,possibly due to time the relationship can only speak the first problem ,is about the Chinese economic growth problems ,other problems will have a chance again. How look upon China ?The various aspects of the question are very concerned about ,for there were many discussions.
This problem ,can be said to be the government ,economists ,business ,intermediary organizations ,including us ordinary people are very pay attention to this problem. Why ?From the government, because the economic work is the central work of the government ,and government performance ,the effectiveness of a heavy To mark.
Is not only the Chinese government ,even the United States and some other developed countries governments are concerned with economic growth .Then the economist is centered around the government to make suggestions ,so many economists tend to Chinese economic growth ,economic fluctuation is very interested in, put a lot of effort to study this problem ,some kinds of variety of predictions ,some have various opinions .
Enterprises, enterprises despite the social micro cell ,but it must grasp the whole economic situation, grasp the macro situation ,otherwise the enterprise in the trend will encounter problems .
So that enterprises, especially some wise enterprises, to macroscopical economy ,on the whole economic growth is also very caring. Intermediary institutions are increasingly replaced some of the government function ,but also the whole economic growth problems into the in-depth study .
Especially some rating agencies ,it should be in the community to establish authority ,to win the market ,won the enterprise and even the government on its importance ,must also be on this problem the United States is studied.
Including the financial crisis ,these intermediary organizations ,in particular the rating agencies have played a very important role .There are various aspects of People ,including business ,also include not to do business ,both on the whole economic growth is very interested in.
At least we have a look economy to develop posture good ,so if buying a house ,including the employment has the basis ,so that also cares very much. Therefore ,how to treat the economic growth ,especially the growth of China ,it the whole society a very prominent issue.
I think we will be concerned about this issue, so I am here today is my study this problem some experience to exchange with you. I analyzed this problem ,everybody cares most is it right? There are so few points ,first ,we Chinese economic growth downward trend was already reached the bottom ,is it right? ?second ,at the beginning of our country determine 8% of theeconomic growth target can be realized ?Third ,if the realization of the growth target of 8% ,so will not appear again decline? Economic growth there are a lot of problems ,may the three problems are various aspects ,the universal value general interest .
Then I these three problems to talk about my views. The first problem ,is that China ,the downward trend is it right? Already reached the bottom ?First of all ,since the reform and opening up thirty years ,China annual economic growth rate is 9.
8% ,should saying is high growth. So at present, is to begin from 2003 ,our economic growth rate is very high .There is a map ,the first curve is economic growth ,is the total GDP of the actual change curve second .
Curve is in accordance with constant value of GDP growth curve. Then according to the first curve can be seen in the growth of the Chinese economy ,no matter if it swings ,it GDP gross is constantly growing ,from about two trillion has been increased to more than 80000 ,so this is not a problem.
Then from GDP growth rates, this figure is the society generally said economic growth ,GDP growth rate curve is better able to explain the problem .This growth rate is this year and last year, last year and the year before ,or is it a quarter and last year with a quarter compared .
From 2003 to 2007,China is quite high most of the year ,more than 10%, the highest point is over 12%. From the beginning of 2008 ,macro-control effects appear gradually ,macroeconomic downlink ,at the end of 2008, downward scope is big .
here are two concepts need to be emphasized ,the first concept ,whether it down or not, it is in a high growth ,we see the growth rate ,were above 9%. Second ,this trend is from a high growth rate, 12%down ,9% and12%compared with the difference of four percentage points ,so this downward scope is not little .
Especially in last year economic growth rate is only 6.7% ,the first quarter of this year is 6.1% .There are many economists ,including some of our practical work departments also said ,China if less than 5% ,various problems will be highlighted ,including social problems ,including the entire employment arrangement ,there will be a serious problem.
The fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year situation has dropped to 6%, so this problem is shocked us all aspects of China is one of the important factors. The Chinese economy downward preliminary analysis for the reason why economic growth will be down ,or economic growth why from 12% ofthe height of drop to around 6% ?What is the reason? The reason about various aspects of that very abundant,ADIDAS Porsche Design P5000, I summed up at least five aspects .
The first is itself a Chinese economic cycle Adjust. Economic growth is periodic wave motion, this is an objective law .So it is at all times and in all countries ,the economic growth rate may not always so high ,however ,may not always so low ,always get.
Economic growth rate is independent of man ,it is an objective of sports results ,although you can take many measures to promote this fluctuation ,make it big or small ,but it is a final statistical results, is the entire social economy life changing results .
So it is an objective existence ,it is independent of man .So you can understand it, too can adapt it ,even according to its request to adopt some measures, but can not change it ,or completely destroy it .
That is to let the whole economic growth always maintained in a substantially ,for example ,to remain in the 9% ,or remain in 10%,or remain in 8%,year in and year out ,this is not the reality .
So in recent years, especially from 2003 to 2007,more than four years our Chinese economic growth in more than 10% average rate ,Nike Air Force 1 Supreme,high in continuous operation for many years, quite good .Especially resource support ,including some conditions for the development of support ,large Home is very clear ,then called " ;the tight running state of " ,that is all sorts of conditions ;stretched tight .
If we hurry, or oil is insufficient, or coal is not enough, either land enough to make a long story short ,very difficult. So development after a period of time to make necessary after adjustment ,adjustment of the backward productive forces ,the competitiveness of enterprises is not strong in these elements or enterprise ,the competition has been eliminated ,frankly this is very tragic .
Then engaged in the enterprise operator is likely to go bankrupt, it is very cruel ,but this is history .Just like each of us ,after for a period of time ,if you don care ,then you are probably he died at the age of 70 ,people care to do good words can live to 100 years old, still in good health ,but people always want to leave this world .
Many products ,a lot of enterprises, including the United States of America as the number of century-old shop ,some in the crisis disappear from the scene ,quit the stage of history .Our economic growth ,will certainly the economic fluctuation ,periodic wave motion to adjust ,make those old is eliminated ,so that the good ,new ,competitive ,internationally competitive factors ,can Continuous training ,can continue to grow ,to talent showing itself ,so we have hope ,economic ability develops ,will facilitate the development of society .
Therefore ,the economic cycle to understand it ,it is an objective existence .Second ,is our country significant demand inadequacy .Currently, our country total demand and total supply imbalance between ,total supply is greater than the total effective demand.
So now prices fell sharply, actual it is negative growth. And supply ,many industrial production capacity is surplus .This factor also decided to our whole economy growth is very important.
Third ,due to various reasons ,now social capital and lack of confidence ,especially private entrepreneurs to invest in a lack of confidence, there are many original do good business ,or even a wealthy person ,with considerable savings in some private entrepreneurs ,the economic downturn in the world ,countries have some factors on he produced very serious influence, he wants to see a situation .
On these civilian battalion entrepreneur ,I think should first of all to understand him. You see, in the big environment looks not good situation, especially in the economic downturn, his investment benefit is uncertain, even can Is also very difficult to determine ,in such circumstances ,he has no confidence can him, he has his reasons.
We present here may be some relatives ,even myself I was engaged in investment or to do some business .We are very clear ,the economy is hot very high time ,what are easy to make money ,while the in times of economic downturn what are easy to lose money.
Very simple ,because of the economic downturn, the enterprise was originally bought those raw materials prices are relatively high ,prices are falling ,all lack confidence ,enterprise product price will drop.
Raw material buy price is high ,sell the product price is low ,the inevitable is not optimistic ,able to draw well .Some time ago, I asked a friend ,that you now how to do ?He said to me that the team have to do ,if I don ,then I these senior staff ,including some of the workers when they were gone ,to gather them ,I spend the cost would be very high .
So now I would rather at a loss to insist ,I can draw even slightly .Also, such as machine to run ,if the stop, start again ,then it takes a greater cost. Especially refining Steel ,it becomes a fire of the fire, and now you say bad, then keep it ;after a stop to start again, it means a big loss .
But now it seems even stopped ,stopped to a large extent, means that it must be eliminated ,so can hold it is pretty .So I say ,now in the society includes some economists complain these civilian battalion entrepreneur ,say they have no confidence ,to give them the confidence to them ,increase investment ,such feelings can be understood ,I agree to give them confidence .
But I also agree on the other hand ,want to give them understanding .Fourth ,is the policy factors. Policy factors on our entire economic growth should say the impact is very big still. Some people said ,if no financial crisis, the Chinese economic growth will decline so much is it right? ?we do not know is it right? Agree ,but I think this view is not unreasonable.
Because our country economy from within students situation, although the economic cycle down the adjustment stage ,but there is a factor ,adidas Jeremy Scott Wings 2,is at the end of 2007 to early 2008formulatemacroscopical 2008 economic policy that are worthy of reflection .
It also proposed to double Compact ,double protection ,Test the character of 49 bottles,double control .Double tight is contractionary fiscal policy ,tightening monetary policy ;double protection is to prevent overheating ,inflation ;double control is to control the rise of prices ,the control of fixed assets investment .
Then many economists criticism that this policy orientation for judging the situation ,it is not accurate enough .Then later, when to the NPC and CPPCC still adhere to this view ,because at that time the situation at that time.
Now look back on it, indeed to see more clearly ,the macroscopical policy indeed to the slump in China has produced very big effect. So to sum up experience lesson, should improve macro-control the scientific sex.
But the macroscopical policy to fulfil our specific industry, indeed is very cruel. Such as real estate ,then a lot of suppress real estate investment ,curb real estate growth of some of the policies ,these policies are now seems to really have to push the US economy growth fell .
Say auto industry also is such. Chinese consumption hot spots of one real estate,20 classic stories., a car ,and the two in the macro-control policy of austerity .Condition ,begin from last year slump ,but now a number of good, this is a different matter.
I want to say is macroscopical economic policy ,which some industry play a role and usefulness ,really great ,but its effectiveness has a lagged effect .The housing ,car city and stock market ,the three important to stimulate economic growth and to build social confidence factors ,are because of macroscopical economic policy greatly affected ,but once they go down there ,and then to revitalize rise, on the need for a time ,requires a process.
Fifth ,is a long-term accumulation of contradictions ,including China the most typical long-term contradiction of urban and rural structure of MM two yuan ,or is the difference between urban and rural residents .
Now it seems our overall relatively high income ,consumption intensity is relatively large. But really because of its rural residents income is not high ,consumption intensity ,so Chinese consumer market is a lame originally .
Consumption should be both city also has the countryside ,so as to constitute the whole of our consumption. But we can say now is the city is better ,while the rural weak .So now in order to stimulate domestic demand ,is to activate the rural market and region difference .
No problem ,it is a long-term accumulation of contradictions ,short-term can not solve. These factors will play a role ,but these effects can be specific conduction to the economic growth rate up ,then take a look at these factors ,including macroeconomic policy and some other factors.
Why ?Because before a few years Chinese economy growth of 12% ,at that time also exists the gap between urban and rural areas ,also exists between eastern and western difference problem. Why now economic growth down ,at that time did not decline ?So this question words are very clear.
But after all, the gap between urban and rural areas ,the difference between thing ministry area, the long-term accumulation of structural contradiction between a boosting role ,it is the economic growth rate low intrinsic reason .
External cause is the financial crisis in the United States ,in our economic growth already downward this trend at the same time ,the United States is also experiencing a financial crisis .
But the financial crisis in the United States also allows us to China in many ways by direct effects ,including the fictitious capital ,fictitious economy impact in this area, including the US stock market influence.
Because of the international hot money through no matter which drains Road ,after all, in our stock market .And we also have an impact on the housing market ,because a lot of foreign hot money into the US market.
There are many of our economy ,especially to those foreign joint venture enterprise investment is also very influential. On our export ,effect is more direct .These factors all through the media and network coverage will see clearly .
The recession of the world economy on our Chinese economy also is one disaster after another .There is the American financial crisis and the world economic recession at the same time ,the international trade protectionism has obvious rise .
Is clear to everyone, including the United States of America such highly advocating freedom ,advocate the market mechanism of the national in the law ,are provided by government sponsored enterprises can only buy American goods ,hire Americans ,as one can imagine the severity of international trade protectionism ,it to our Chinese influence is self-evident .
The above is about our Chinese economic growth down some of the reasons for the preliminary analysis. It is an important question is economy rate of growth by the fourth quarter of last year and first quarter of this year dropped to about 6%, is it right? To the bottom ?When will you begin to pick up ?Sure went on to ask this question .
Whether the economy into the ground ?To this problem a lot of people are studied here ,but I and friends say ,economists ,including US government officials ,don dress up into calculating life ,never once their own analysis and comparison anastomosis ,say oneself is true ;not in his analysis of the data ,the conclusion and future reality no anastomosis time, said his nonsense .
Anyway as long as he can from its principle ,can produce some thoughts ,I think it is very good. So from my own experience that factor analysis, I draw a conclusion ,I think now seems to be basic to the bottom ,it is a conclusion .
The second ,the fourth quarter of this year economy should rise to rational levels. The first so-called bottom is fluctuation curve inside the bottom section ,this section may be a bit ,may also be a short .
Second is the economy rebounded to a rational level ,what is the rational level ?Is the various aspects of the scholars ,research institutions ,including the US government real department ,to the economy of Chinese future potential The rate of growth .
Especially like those of the United States ,won the Nobel prize that everyone ,especially pay close attention to this problem. If the actual growth rate is higher than the potential growth rate ,then the economy is a tightly run ;if less than the potential growth rate ,it is conservative ,that is you wasted .
So it seems, for the potential economic growth rate research ,everybody is not very uniform .But there is an interval ,the interval of 8% to11%is small ,it is around 9%. I quite agree with this analysis about 9% ,most of the people are in favor of the 9% may be about the analysis.
Then if the fourth quarter we Chinese economic growth rates can reach about 9% ,should be called up .This is two conclusions. You must ask me what basis? I by four ,the first ,is our many Chinese enterprises ,they originally in 2008 fourthquarter ,including fourth quarter into the raw materials ,the price is very high including the time into .
Crude oil ,coal ,steel prices are high. And from this year ,including the fourth quarter of last year, they produce and sell those goods ,product prices are very low, so it is In the red ,there is a loss.
If like electrolytic aluminum ,aluminum has owned the plant ,have their own mines, it need not to buy coal, coal mine this is it ,is it is it ,power plant ,the electrolytic aluminum it ,it can loss.
Why ?It didn inventory the problem of high price ,not the raw materials into the problem ,anyway, rotten meat is in its pot inside, its statistic business accounting when benefit is good.
But no power plant, have their own mines,Adidas Porsche Design Bounce, have their own mines would be finished, losing in a complete mess .So the price of raw materials ,low to sell a product the digestive process ,generally speaking, after half a year ,and it has the certain lag effect ,on the whole, to digest the end may be a year or so.
Then beginning in the fourth quarter of 2008 with a year of time,is the fourth quarter of 20009 ,so after a period after it is essential to solve the problem. This is an analysis ,now the analysis of various aspects of or basic consensus could be reached .
Second ,is the economic growth in 2008 is thefirst tall hind low .A first quarter growth rate of around 13%, to the fourth quarter growth rate of only 6.7% ,early than At the end of the year doubled .
2009 statistic,to 2008 as the base year .Then cardinal number is high, the hysteresis effect is extremely large ,so the first quarter of this year growth of 6.1% ,do not be too pessimistic ,why ?Because a quarter of last year the growth rate is too high ,if you both with a mean and dividing by the look, this is not quite scientific, but it can illustrate some questions.
For example the first quarter of this year is 6% ,the first quarter of last year is 13% ,a is 19% ,the calculated average is 9.5%, not too low. So the economic life is like this, sometimes you should use economy of language to say it is hard to say clearly ,you use the very simple way to think ,and sometimes want to understand very much .
The base effect, by the third quarter of this year ,just in time, because last year growth rate is still high compared to the fourth quarter ,down to 6.7% ,this lag effects of no .So the third quarter should be said about it eliminates the lag influence factors.
Everybody wants to know, this factor is greatly affected .The third is to expand inside needed policy ,now we will not comment on the policy of expanding domestic demand intensity and intensity and its merits and demerits ,said the policy of expanding domestic demand effect ,There must be.
Because in China ,thirty years of reform and opening up ,we present here a lot of my colleagues are Qinliqinwei ,including my own experience ,never since the fourth quarter of last year ,policy of macroscopical adjusting control strength is so great, attitude so clear ,so clear signal .
The 1998 Asian financial crisis when there is no clear so ,when observations are not unified. That is when bonds issued to expand domestic demand ,at that time I was a trader, a better understanding of the situation at that time.
That opinion was not uniform ,but we do ,make the effect is very obvious .When we put hair national debt ,there is considerable some people say some people is not an ordinary person ,are not in favor of .
But later still do, do good effect .This look is very clear ,1998only 60000000000,opinions are not unified ,this is $4 ,you say the strength to have how old ?This strength very big ,the policy effects will appear, but it will not be to get instant results .
Because you think, is very simple .We present here may have some entrepreneur ,you gave him money ,he first the project started, and then have to buy raw Material ,a little bit of money to build ,also have a process.
It after a year of operation ,the effect will be more obvious. So the effects of regulation and control policy appeared generally need a little time. Then I analyze this a year later ,the policy of expanding domestic demand will be very full show.
The fourth is several times before we cycle trough generally also is not very long ,the longest one year. So if we from the fourth quarter of last year ,to the third quarter of this year is a year ,I think it is almost up ,not necessarily very accurate ,but almost .
These four factors explain, macroscopical economy in the fourth quarter of this year should be able to pick up, never say never, but should be the trend. We can also think ,expected economic growth target this year is around 8%.
This around 8% can be realized ?Maybe 7.5% ,also possible is 7.8%, or 8.2% are possible.As long as it is about 8%, almost zero several points I don go for it .But to achieve around 8% ,the first quarter has been very clear, is 6.
1%.If the second quarter to a point ,such as 7% Or a little over seven percent ,third quarter to 8%,fourth quarter to 9% ,this year on average only about 8%, or seven percent points a few left .
Otherwise ,achieve the 8% target is impossible. This is a very simple ,unscientific methods ,but it can explain the problem .Now, I think is close to or achieve the goal of 8% is not impossible ,there is still hope left.
Why ?Because the present a good development trend ,two days before the Statistical Bureau issued a quarterly data ,many media have carried out analysis ,the general seems to have signs of warming.
So some people say it is up ,but the objective analysis ,I see can not arbitrarily say that it is the campaign, if not the fact ,you want to create it also could not be established .
So ,I see the situation better than expected. So we have a characteristic ,it is would rather put the problem of estimating the serious ,take measures take some more ,not the opposite.
As decision makers it is right ,but to the social public, I think this is not good .Now if the situation is not good, we have to speak ,to turn to propaganda ,so as to reverse the declining tendency ,should take Such a strategy.
But unfortunately now sometimes the problem inside out. Four years ago I was a national hair to change appoint news spokesman ,when I am with my colleagues together to discuss how to do press work, I will mention two ,I say this to you and there is not ,Jeremy Scott Adidas,of course ,to seek truth from facts .
For public release news to selectively ,the same thing can tell the different points of view, so that the public should correctly guide it .But now it seems ,we and confused .So it is indeed a lot of positive factors ,such as investment ,now it seems our investment is to accelerate growth.
A quarter of the total fixed asset investment growth rate is 28.8% ,higher than the same period last year to speed up by 4.2 percentage points. Like Hebei province grows 59%.I tell you ,the first quarter of 2003 ,the first quarter of 2004 wehave introduced a very strict macro-control measures ,the basis is why ?Fixed asset investment growth rate exceeded 25% .
Because in China ,fixed assets investment ideal growth rate was 20%. Once more than 25%,will take stringent measures to carry out macro-control, so that the occurrence of " ;the &quo iron T ;event .
Those years are so, these are my own .But now, the fixed asset investment growth of 28.8% ,the growth rate than the original worry about overheating growth rate is still high ,especially in March ,the town of investment in fixed assets over 30%,no matter what it is facts.
From the point of consumption ,a quarter of total retail sales of social consumer goods grew 15% ,Click Here,deduct prices factors, the actual growth of 15.9%. The past is that price rises ,if you grew by 15% ,after allowing for inflation actual growth rate will be lower.
Now because of the inflation rate is negative ,so the actual growth rate is greater than the nominal growth ,so the actual growth of 15.9%. The consumption growth rate is quite high. In consumption it is particularly worth mentioning is the consumptive heat up ,after ten years of cultivation ,Chinese consumption hot spots is the most prominent two ,a housing ,a car city .
Of course it from money angle, if from the money point of view, as well as the stock market ,we can not say it .Real high ,car city the two is pure consumption .From the car perspective, a quarter car sales is achieves the history new tall ,achieve 2670000 .
We expected early automobile .Fee can draw well ,then we research to study to feel the need to stimulate it ,hoping to be growth. Now China year of car consumption big number is ten million, so if a quarter more than 2500000, it will be more than the original plan expected .
According to this growth rate ,the annual affirmation will exceed ten million a minibus .Especially ,because of the policy factors stimulation ,sales growth reached 34.7% ,quite good .But sales are increasing month by month ,March sales of 1100000 units,if the month sells 1000000, the twelve month of 12000000, if according to the trend that is very impressive .
There are real estate ,a quarter of the real estate investment is 480000000000 ,an increase of 4.1%. This depends on the same period last year, a quarter of last year real estate growth rate is 32.
3% ,in that year based on an increase of 4.1% .So only 4.1%,that is less than last year by 28.2 percentage points ,but the the cardinal number is very high ,and the real estate that is very depressed ,considering that everyone watching this state ,that can have this number very good-looking ,very simple .
A quarter of national commercial housing sales area Over 10000 square meters,up 8.2% .Commercial housing sales also increased by 23%. In March the country seventy large and medium-sized city housing sales price fell 1.
3%. But this decline narrowed ,but also from the ring to watch it ,is basically the same. So, I should say the two consumer hot indeed was warmer state. In China the two hotspots of consumption has not released completely ,because the Chinese city and the process of industrialization is not the end .
The two consumption hot spots are pulling US city ,drive industrialization is an important factor .Export situation is not good ,dropped 17.1% ,this is very obvious ,because the international situation has not improved .
But China export contribution to the economic growth is a very complicated problem ,according to statistics is a net surplus ,is this year surplus minus the last year surplus balance constitute part of the GDP.
Although exports decreased, but as long as imports fell more, the surplus does not reduce ,it exports to GDP growth does not necessarily affect greatly, so this factor is very interesting question .
Our economics ,particularly statistics friends may know it. From the industrial growth rate is also good The return to growth ,March 8.3%,than the growth in the first two months of 4.4%was much better, but also good.
Another factor is expected to stabilize, the March Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index above 50%, than in February increased significantly .The confidence in the stock market ,from April ,Shanghai has more than 2000 points ,also good.
Business confidence is gradually increased ,the National Bureau of statistics released by the national business climate survey, a quarter of the entrepreneur confidence index is 101 ,than last quarter increased 6.
5 percentage points ,it .The above factors indeed show that our economic situation is better than expected, that is warmer signs .It is the second problem ,is said to have economy to the bottom ,when I can pick up.
I basic judgment is to the bottom of the trough ,the economy slowly recovers, to the three quarter should be able to pick up the rational level of growth. 2009Chineseeconomy growth and a 8%?The problem is GDP grows 8% to control this goal can realize ,this problem generally people are not concerned .
But to the NPC and CPPCC ,the NPC, CPPCC members to review the government plans to implement The time value of this index .In fact there is a deeper problem ,the so-called 8% goals ,it is economic growth .
In the community on this figure was very confused, I know this ,because I was responsible for planning the drafting of the report ,I once organized draft 12tothe people report ,every year to encounter this problem .
For example shows that this years economic growth will reach 12% ,but our goal is 8% .Fourth quarter of last year the growth rate is 6% ,in the more difficult when we set the goal is 8% .
There are many NPC deputies and CPPCC members this criticism. I think criticizing right also, they criticized what ?They say this is not scientific ,not plan too ,know the growth of 10 percent you must set your goals 8%.
But the State Council with the NPC and CPPCC explained here ,say this is not mandatory ,but prospective it is just a guide ,goal that economy grows quickly .When I give you 8%,the mean is not too high, too high for our economic construction .